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Developing Machine Learning Models for Prediction of Onset of Type-2 Diabetes

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Developing Machine Learning Models for Prediction of Onset of Type-2 Diabetes

Reporter: Amandeep Kaur, B.Sc., M.Sc.

A recent study reports the development of an advanced AI algorithm which predicts up to five years in advance the starting of type 2 diabetes by utilizing regularly collected medical data. Researchers described their AI model as notable and distinctive based on the specific design which perform assessments at the population level.

**Machine Learning, big data and Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare System**
Image source: https://healthinformatics.uic.edu/blog/machine-learning-in-healthcare/

The first author Mathieu Ravaut, M.Sc. of the University of Toronto and other team members stated that “The main purpose of our model was to inform population health planning and management for the prevention of diabetes that incorporates health equity. It was not our goal for this model to be applied in the context of individual patient care.”

Research group collected data from 2006 to 2016 of approximately 2.1 million patients treated at the same healthcare system in Ontario, Canada. Even though the patients were belonged to the same area, the authors highlighted that Ontario encompasses a diverse and large population.

The newly developed algorithm was instructed with data of approximately 1.6 million patients, validated with data of about 243,000 patients and evaluated with more than 236,000 patient’s data. The data used to improve the algorithm included the medical history of each patient from previous two years- prescriptions, medications, lab tests and demographic information.

When predicting the onset of type 2 diabetes within five years, the algorithm model reached a test area under the ROC curve of 80.26.

The authors reported that “Our model showed consistent calibration across sex, immigration status, racial/ethnic and material deprivation, and a low to moderate number of events in the health care history of the patient. The cohort was representative of the whole population of Ontario, which is itself among the most diverse in the world. The model was well calibrated, and its discrimination, although with a slightly different end goal, was competitive with results reported in the literature for other machine learning–based studies that used more granular clinical data from electronic medical records without any modifications to the original test set distribution.”

This model could potentially improve the healthcare system of countries equipped with thorough administrative databases and aim towards specific cohorts that may encounter the faulty outcomes.

Research group stated that “Because our machine learning model included social determinants of health that are known to contribute to diabetes risk, our population-wide approach to risk assessment may represent a tool for addressing health disparities.”

Sources:

https://www.cardiovascularbusiness.com/topics/prevention-risk-reduction/new-ai-model-healthcare-data-predict-type-2-diabetes?utm_source=newsletter

Reference:

Ravaut M, Harish V, Sadeghi H, et al. Development and Validation of a Machine Learning Model Using Administrative Health Data to Predict Onset of Type 2 Diabetes. JAMA Netw Open. 2021;4(5):e2111315. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.11315 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2780137