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Archive for the ‘Health Economics and Outcomes Research’ Category


Reporter and Curator: Dr. Sudipta Saha, Ph.D.

 

The term ‘antibiotic’ was introduced by Selman Waksman as any small molecule, produced by a microbe, with antagonistic properties on the growth of other microbes. An antibiotic interferes with bacterial survival via a specific mode of action but more importantly, at therapeutic concentrations, it is sufficiently potent to be effective against infection and simultaneously presents minimal toxicity. Infectious diseases have been a challenge throughout the ages. From 1347 to 1350, approximately one-third of Europe’s population perished to Bubonic plague. Advances in sanitary and hygienic conditions sufficed to control further plague outbreaks. However, these persisted as a recurrent public health issue. Likewise, infectious diseases in general remained the leading cause of death up to the early 1900s. The mortality rate shrunk after the commercialization of antibiotics, which given their impact on the fate of mankind, were regarded as a ‘medical miracle’. Moreover, the non-therapeutic application of antibiotics has also greatly affected humanity, for instance those used as livestock growth promoters to increase food production after World War II.

 

Currently, more than 2 million North Americans acquire infections associated with antibiotic resistance every year, resulting in 23,000 deaths. In Europe, nearly 700 thousand cases of antibiotic-resistant infections directly develop into over 33,000 deaths yearly, with an estimated cost over €1.5 billion. Despite a 36% increase in human use of antibiotics from 2000 to 2010, approximately 20% of deaths worldwide are related to infectious diseases today. Future perspectives are no brighter, for instance, a government commissioned study in the United Kingdom estimated 10 million deaths per year from antibiotic resistant infections by 2050.

 

The increase in antibiotic-resistant bacteria, alongside the alarmingly low rate of newly approved antibiotics for clinical usage, we are on the verge of not having effective treatments for many common infectious diseases. Historically, antibiotic discovery has been crucial in outpacing resistance and success is closely related to systematic procedures – platforms – that have catalyzed the antibiotic golden age, namely the Waksman platform, followed by the platforms of semi-synthesis and fully synthetic antibiotics. Said platforms resulted in the major antibiotic classes: aminoglycosides, amphenicols, ansamycins, beta-lactams, lipopeptides, diaminopyrimidines, fosfomycins, imidazoles, macrolides, oxazolidinones, streptogramins, polymyxins, sulphonamides, glycopeptides, quinolones and tetracyclines.

 

The increase in drug-resistant pathogens is a consequence of multiple factors, including but not limited to high rates of antimicrobial prescriptions, antibiotic mismanagement in the form of self-medication or interruption of therapy, and large-scale antibiotic use as growth promotors in livestock farming. For example, 60% of the antibiotics sold to the USA food industry are also used as therapeutics in humans. To further complicate matters, it is estimated that $200 million is required for a molecule to reach commercialization, with the risk of antimicrobial resistance rapidly developing, crippling its clinical application, or on the opposing end, a new antibiotic might be so effective it is only used as a last resort therapeutic, thus not widely commercialized.

 

Besides a more efficient management of antibiotic use, there is a pressing need for new platforms capable of consistently and efficiently delivering new lead substances, which should attend their precursors impressively low rates of success, in today’s increasing drug resistance scenario. Antibiotic Discovery Platforms are aiming to screen large libraries, for instance the reservoir of untapped natural products, which is likely the next antibiotic ‘gold mine’. There is a void between phenotanypic screening (high-throughput) and omics-centered assays (high-information), where some mechanistic and molecular information complements antimicrobial activity, without the laborious and extensive application of various omics assays. The increasing need for antibiotics drives the relentless and continuous research on the foreground of antibiotic discovery. This is likely to expand our knowledge on the biological events underlying infectious diseases and, hopefully, result in better therapeutics that can swing the war on infectious diseases back in our favor.

 

During the genomics era came the target-based platform, mostly considered a failure due to limitations in translating drugs to the clinic. Therefore, cell-based platforms were re-instituted, and are still of the utmost importance in the fight against infectious diseases. Although the antibiotic pipeline is still lackluster, especially of new classes and novel mechanisms of action, in the post-genomic era, there is an increasingly large set of information available on microbial metabolism. The translation of such knowledge into novel platforms will hopefully result in the discovery of new and better therapeutics, which can sway the war on infectious diseases back in our favor.

 

References:

 

https://www.mdpi.com/2079-6382/8/2/45/htm

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19515346

 

https://www.ajicjournal.org/article/S0196-6553(11)00184-2/fulltext

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21700626

 

http://www.med.or.jp/english/journal/pdf/2009_02/103_108.pdf

 

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Lesson 10 on Cancer, Oncogenes, and Aberrant Cell Signal Termination in Disease for #TUBiol3373

Curator: Stephen J. Williams

Please click on the following file to get the Powerpoint Presentation for this lecture

cell signaling 10 lesson_SJW 2019

There is a good reference to read on The Hallmarks of Cancer published first in 2000 and then updated with 2 new hallmarks in 2011 (namely the ability of cancer cells to reprogram their metabolism and 2. the ability of cancer cells to evade the immune system)

a link to the PDF is given here:

hallmarks2000

hallmarks2011

Please also go to other articles on this site which are relevant to this lecture.  You can use the search box in the upper right hand corner of the Home Page or these are few links you might find interesting

Development of Chemoresistance to Targeted Therapies: Alterations of Cell Signaling & the Kinome

Proteomics, Metabolomics, Signaling Pathways, and Cell Regulation: a Compilation of Articles in the Journal http://pharmaceuticalintelligence.com

Feeling the Heat – the Link between Inflammation and Cancer

Lesson 4 Cell Signaling And Motility: G Proteins, Signal Transduction: Curations and Articles of reference as supplemental information: #TUBiol3373

Immunotherapy Resistance Rears Its Ugly Head: PD-1 Resistant Metastatic Melanoma and More

Novel Mechanisms of Resistance to Novel Agents

 

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Digital Therapeutics: A threat or opportunity to pharmaceuticals


Reporter and Curator: Dr. Sudipta Saha, Ph.D.

 

Digital Therapeutics (DTx) have been defined by the Digital Therapeutics Alliance (DTA) as “delivering evidence based therapeutic interventions to patients, that are driven by software to prevent, manage or treat a medical disorder or disease”. They might come in the form of a smart phone or computer tablet app, or some form of a cloud-based service connected to a wearable device. DTx tend to fall into three groups. Firstly, developers and mental health researchers have built digital solutions which typically provide a form of software delivered Cognitive-Behaviour Therapies (CBT) that help patients change behaviours and develop coping strategies around their condition. Secondly there are the group of Digital Therapeutics which target lifestyle issues, such as diet, exercise and stress, that are associated with chronic conditions, and work by offering personalized support for goal setting and target achievement. Lastly, DTx can be designed to work in combination with existing medication or treatments, helping patients manage their therapies and focus on ensuring the therapy delivers the best outcomes possible.

 

Pharmaceutical companies are clearly trying to understand what DTx will mean for them. They want to analyze whether it will be a threat or opportunity to their business. For a long time, they have been providing additional support services to patients who take relatively expensive drugs for chronic conditions. A nurse-led service might provide visits and telephone support to diabetics for example who self-inject insulin therapies. But DTx will help broaden the scope of support services because they can be delivered cost-effectively, and importantly have the ability to capture real-world evidence on patient outcomes. They will no-longer be reserved for the most expensive drugs or therapies but could apply to a whole range of common treatments to boost their efficacy. Faced with the arrival of Digital Therapeutics either replacing drugs, or playing an important role alongside therapies, pharmaceutical firms have three options. They can either ignore DTx and focus on developing drug therapies as they have done; they can partner with a growing number of DTx companies to develop software and services complimenting their drugs; or they can start to build their own Digital Therapeutics to work with their products.

 

Digital Therapeutics will have knock-on effects in health industries, which may be as great as the introduction of therapeutic apps and services themselves. Together with connected health monitoring devices, DTx will offer a near constant stream of data about an individuals’ behavior, real world context around factors affecting their treatment in their everyday lives and emotional and physiological data such as blood pressure and blood sugar levels. Analysis of the resulting data will help create support services tailored to each patient. But who stores and analyses this data is an important question. Strong data governance will be paramount to maintaining trust, and the highly regulated pharmaceutical industry may not be best-placed to handle individual patient data. Meanwhile, the health sector (payers and healthcare providers) is becoming more focused on patient outcomes, and payment for value not volume. The future will say whether pharmaceutical firms enhance the effectiveness of drugs with DTx, or in some cases replace drugs with DTx.

 

Digital Therapeutics have the potential to change what the pharmaceutical industry sells: rather than a drug it will sell a package of drugs and digital services. But they will also alter who the industry sells to. Pharmaceutical firms have traditionally marketed drugs to doctors, pharmacists and other health professionals, based on the efficacy of a specific product. Soon it could be paid on the outcome of a bundle of digital therapies, medicines and services with a closer connection to both providers and patients. Apart from a notable few, most pharmaceutical firms have taken a cautious approach towards Digital Therapeutics. Now, it is to be observed that how the pharmaceutical companies use DTx to their benefit as well as for the benefit of the general population.

 

References:

 

https://eloqua.eyeforpharma.com/LP=23674?utm_campaign=EFP%2007MAR19%20EFP%20Database&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Eloqua&elqTrackId=73e21ae550de49ccabbf65fce72faea0&elq=818d76a54d894491b031fa8d1cc8d05c&elqaid=43259&elqat=1&elqCampaignId=24564

 

https://www.s3connectedhealth.com/resources/white-papers/digital-therapeutics-pharmas-threat-or-opportunity/

 

http://www.pharmatimes.com/web_exclusives/digital_therapeutics_will_transform_pharma_and_healthcare_industries_in_2019._heres_how._1273671

 

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/pharmaceuticals-and-medical-products/our-insights/exploring-the-potential-of-digital-therapeutics

 

https://player.fm/series/digital-health-today-2404448/s9-081-scaling-digital-therapeutics-the-opportunities-and-challenges

 

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THE 3RD STAT4ONC ANNUAL SYMPOSIUM

APRIL 25-27, 2019

HILTON, HARTFORD, CONNECTICUT
315 Trumbull St, Hartford, CT 06103
Reporter: Stephen J. Williams, Ph.D.

SYMPOSIUM OBJECTIVES

The three-day symposium aims to bring oncologists and statisticians together to share new research, discuss novel ideas, ask questions and provide solutions for cancer clinical trials. In the era of big data, precision medicine, and genomics and immune-based oncology, it is crucial to provide a platform for interdisciplinary dialogues among clinical and quantitative scientists. The Stat4Onc Annual Symposium serves as a venue for oncologists and statisticians to communicate their views on trial design and conduct, drug development, and translations to patient care. To be discussed includes big data and genomics for oncology clinical trials, novel dose-finding designs, drug combinations, immune oncology clinical trials, and umbrella/basket oncology trials. An important aspect of Stat4Onc is the participation of researchers across academia, industry, and regulatory agency.

Meeting Agenda will be announced coming soon. For Updated Agenda and Program Speakers please CLICK HERE

The registration of the symposium is via NESS Society PayPal. Click here to register.

Other  2019 Conference Announcement Posts on this Open Access Journal Include:

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From Thalidomide to Revlimid: Celgene to Bristol Myers to possibly Pfizer; A Curation of Deals, Discovery and the State of Pharma

 

Curator: Stephen J. Williams, Ph.D.

Updated 4/12/2019

Updated 2/28/2019

Lenalidomide (brand name Revlimid) is an approved chemotherapeutic used to treat multiple myeloma, mantle cell lymphoma, and certain myedysplastic syndromes.  It is chemically related to thalidomide analog with potential antineoplastic activity. Lenalidomide inhibits TNF-alpha production, stimulates T cells, reduces serum levels of the cytokines vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF), and inhibits angiogenesis. This agent also promotes G1 cell cycle arrest and apoptosis of malignant cells.  It is usually given with dexamethasone for multiple myeloma. Revlimid was developed and sold by Celgene Corp.  However, recent news of deals with Bristol Myers Squib

 

Revlimid Approval History 

FDA Approved: Yes (First approved December 27, 2005)
Brand name: Revlimid
Generic name: lenalidomide
Dosage form: Capsules
Company: Celgene Corporation
Treatment for: Myelodysplastic SyndromeMultiple MyelomaLymphoma 

Revlimid (lenalidomide) is an immunomodulatory drug indicated for the treatment of patients with multiple myeloma, transfusion-dependent anemia due myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), and mantle cell lymphoma. 

Development History and FDA Approval Process for Revlimid 

Date  Article 
Feb 22, 2017   FDA Expands Indication for Revlimid (lenalidomide) as a Maintenance Treatment for Patients with Multiple Myeloma Following Autologous Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant (auto-HSCT) 
Feb 18, 2015   FDA Expands Indication for Revlimid (lenalidomide) in Combination with Dexamethasone to Include Patients Newly Diagnosed with Multiple Myeloma 
Jun  5, 2013   FDA Approves Revlimid (lenalidomide) for the Treatment of Patients with Relapsed or Refractory Mantle Cell Lymphoma 
Oct  3, 2005  Revlimid PDUFA Date Extended Three Months By FDA 
Sep 14, 2005  FDA Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee Recommends Revlimid for Full Approval 
Sep 13, 2005  FDA and Celgene Revlimid Briefing Documents for Advisory Committee Meeting Available Online 
Jun 21, 2005  FDA Grants Priority Review for Revlimid NDA for Treatment of Low- and Intermediate- Risk MDS With Deletion 5q Chromosomal Abnormality 
Jun  7, 2005  Revlimid (lenalidomide) New Drug Application Accepted for Review by FDA 
Apr  8, 2005  Revlimid New Drug Application Submitted to FDA for Review 

  

  

 

 

M&A Deals Now and On The Horizon

  1. Right before the 2019 JP Morgan Healthcare Conference and a month before Bristol Myers quarterly earings reports, Bristol Myers Squib (BMY) announes a $74 Billion offer for Celgene Corp.  From the Bristol Myers website press realease:

Bristol-Myers Squibb to Acquire Celgene to Create a Premier Innovative Biopharma Company

  • Highly Complementary Portfolios with Leading Franchises in Oncology, Immunology and Inflammation and Cardiovascular Disease
  • Significantly Expands Phase III Assets with Six Expected Near-Term Product Launches, Representing Greater Than $15 Billion in Revenue Potential
  • Registrational Trial Opportunities and Early-Stage Pipeline Position Combined Company for Sustained Leadership Underpinned by Cutting-Edge Technologies and Discovery Platforms
  • Strong Combined Cash Flows, Enhanced Margins and EPS Accretion of Greater Than 40% in First Full Year
  • Approximately $2.5 Billion of Expected Run-Rate Cost Synergies to Be Achieved by 2022
THURSDAY, JANUARY 3, 2019 6:58 AM EST

NEW YORK & SUMMIT, N.J.,–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE:BMY) and Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ:CELG) today announced that they have entered into a definitive merger agreement under which Bristol-Myers Squibb will acquire Celgene in a cash and stock transaction with an equity value of approximately $74 billion. Under the terms of the agreement, Celgene shareholders will receive 1.0 Bristol-Myers Squibb share and $50.00 in cash for each share of Celgene. Celgene shareholders will also receive one tradeable Contingent Value Right (CVR) for each share of Celgene, which will entitle the holder to receive a payment for the achievement of future regulatory milestones. The Boards of Directors of both companies have approved the combination.

The transaction will create a leading focused specialty biopharma company well positioned to address the needs of patients with cancer, inflammatory and immunologic disease and cardiovascular disease through high-value innovative medicines and leading scientific capabilities. With complementary areas of focus, the combined company will operate with global reach and scale, maintaining the speed and agility that is core to each company’s strategic approach.

Based on the closing price of Bristol-Myers Squibb stock of $52.43 on January 2, 2019, the cash and stock consideration to be received by Celgene shareholders at closing is valued at $102.43 per Celgene share and one CVR (as described below). When completed, Bristol-Myers Squibb shareholders are expected to own approximately 69 percent of the company, and Celgene shareholders are expected to own approximately 31 percent.

“Together with Celgene, we are creating an innovative biopharma leader, with leading franchises and a deep and broad pipeline that will drive sustainable growth and deliver new options for patients across a range of serious diseases,” said Giovanni Caforio, M.D., Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Bristol-Myers Squibb. “As a combined entity, we will enhance our leadership positions across our portfolio, including in cancer and immunology and inflammation. We will also benefit from an expanded early- and late-stage pipeline that includes six expected near-term product launches. Together, our pipeline holds significant promise for patients, allowing us to accelerate new options through a broader range of cutting-edge technologies and discovery platforms.”

Dr. Caforio continued, “We are impressed by what Celgene has accomplished for patients, and we look forward to welcoming Celgene employees to Bristol-Myers Squibb. Our new company will continue the strong patient focus that is core to both companies’ missions, creating a shared organization with a goal of discovering, developing and delivering innovative medicines for patients with serious diseases. We are confident we will drive value for shareholders and create opportunities for employees.”

“For more than 30 years, Celgene’s commitment to leading innovation has allowed us to deliver life-changing treatments to patients in areas of high unmet need. Combining with Bristol-Myers Squibb, we are delivering immediate and substantial value to Celgene shareholders and providing them meaningful participation in the long-term growth opportunities created by the combined company,” said Mark Alles, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Celgene. “Our employees should be incredibly proud of what we have accomplished together and excited for the opportunities ahead of us as we join with Bristol-Myers Squibb, where we can further advance our mission for patients. We look forward to working with the Bristol-Myers Squibb team as we bring our two companies together.”

Compelling Strategic Benefits

  • Leading franchises with complementary product portfolios provide enhanced scale and balance. The combination creates:
    • Leading oncology franchises in both solid tumors and hematologic malignancies led by Opdivo and Yervoy as well as Revlimid and Pomalyst;
    • A top five immunology and inflammation franchise led by Orencia and Otezla; and
    • The #1 cardiovascular franchise led by Eliquis.

The combined company will have nine products with more than $1 billion in annual sales and significant potential for growth in the core disease areas of oncology, immunology and inflammation and cardiovascular disease.

  • Near-term launch opportunities representing greater than $15 billion in revenue potential. The combined company will have six expected near-term product launches:
    • Two in immunology and inflammation, TYK2 and ozanimod; and
    • Four in hematology, luspatercept, liso-cel (JCAR017), bb2121 and fedratinib.

These launches leverage the combined commercial capabilities of the two companies and will broaden and enhance Bristol-Myers Squibb’s market position with innovative and differentiated products. This is in addition to a significant number of lifecycle management registrational readouts expected in Immuno-Oncology (IO).

  • Early-stage pipeline builds sustainable platform for growth. The combined company will have a deep and diverse early-stage pipeline across solid tumors and hematologic malignancies, immunology and inflammation, cardiovascular disease and fibrotic disease leveraging combined strengths in innovation. The early-stage pipeline includes 50 high potential assets, many with important data readouts in the near-term. With a significantly enhanced early-stage pipeline, Bristol-Myers Squibb will be well positioned for long-term growth and significant value creation.
  • Powerful combined discovery capabilities with world-class expertise in a broad range of modalities. Together, the Company will have expanded innovation capabilities in small molecule design, biologics/synthetic biologics, protein homeostasis, antibody engineering and cell therapy. Furthermore, strong external partnerships provide access to additional modalities.

Compelling Financial Benefits

  • Strong returns and significant immediate EPS accretion. The transaction’s internal rate of return is expected to be well in excess of Celgene’s and Bristol-Myers Squibb’s cost of capital. The combination is expected to be more than 40 percent accretive to Bristol-Myers Squibb’s EPS on a standalone basis in the first full year following close of the transaction.
  • Strong balance sheet and cash flow generation to enable significant investment in innovation. With more than $45 billion of expected free cash flow generation over the first three full years post-closing, the Company is committed to maintaining strong investment grade credit ratings while continuing its dividend policy for the benefit of Bristol-Myers Squibb and Celgene shareholders. Bristol-Myers Squibb will also have significant financial flexibility to realize the full potential of the enhanced late- and early-stage pipeline.
  • Meaningful cost synergies. Bristol-Myers Squibb expects to realize run-rate cost synergies of approximately $2.5 billion by 2022. Bristol-Myers Squibb is confident it will achieve efficiencies across the organization while maintaining a strong, core commitment to innovation and delivering the value of the portfolio.

Terms and Financing

Based on the closing price of Bristol-Myers Squibb stock on January 2, 2019, the cash and stock consideration to be received by Celgene shareholders is valued at $102.43 per share. The cash and stock consideration represents an approximately 51 percent premium to Celgene shareholders based on the 30-day volume weighted average closing stock price of Celgene prior to signing and an approximately 54 percent premium to Celgene shareholders based on the closing stock price of Celgene on January 2, 2019. Each share also will receive one tradeable CVR, which will entitle its holder to receive a one-time potential payment of $9.00 in cash upon FDA approval of all three of ozanimod (by December 31, 2020), liso-cel (JCAR017) (by December 31, 2020) and bb2121 (by March 31, 2021), in each case for a specified indication.

The transaction is not subject to a financing condition. The cash portion will be funded through a combination of cash on hand and debt financing. Bristol-Myers Squibb has obtained fully committed debt financing from Morgan Stanley Senior Funding, Inc. and MUFG Bank, Ltd. Following the close of the transaction, Bristol-Myers Squibb expects that substantially all of the debt of the combined company will be pari passu.

Accelerated Share Repurchase Program

Bristol-Myers Squibb expects to execute an accelerated share repurchase program of up to approximately $5 billion, subject to the closing of the transaction, market conditions and Board approval.

Corporate Governance

Following the close of the transaction, Dr. Caforio will continue to serve as Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer of the company. Two members from Celgene’s Board will be added to the Board of Directors of Bristol-Myers Squibb. The combined company will continue to have a strong presence throughout New Jersey.

Approvals and Timing to Close

The transaction is subject to approval by Bristol-Myers Squibb and Celgene shareholders and the satisfaction of customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals. Bristol-Myers Squibb and Celgene expect to complete the transaction in the third quarter of 2019.

Advisors

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC is serving as lead financial advisor to Bristol-Myers Squibb, and Evercore and Dyal Co. LLC are serving as financial advisors to Bristol-Myers Squibb. Kirkland & Ellis LLP is serving as Bristol-Myers Squibb’s legal counsel. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC is serving as lead financial advisor and Citi is acting as financial advisor to Celgene. Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz is serving as legal counsel to Celgene.

Bristol-Myers Squibb 2019 EPS Guidance

In a separate press release issued today, Bristol-Myers Squibb announced its 2019 EPS guidance for full-year 2019, which is available on the “Investor Relations” section of the Bristol-Myers Squibb website at https://www.bms.com/investors.html.

Conference Call

Bristol-Myers Squibb and Celgene will host a conference call today, at 8:00 a.m. ET to discuss the transaction. The conference call can be accessed by dialing (800) 347-6311 (U.S. / Canada) or (786) 460-7199 (International) and giving the passcode 4935567. A replay of the call will be available from January 3, 2019 until January 17, 2019 by dialing (888) 203-1112 (U.S. / Canada) or (719) 457-0820 (International) and giving the passcode 4935567.

A live webcast of the conference call will be available on the investor relations section of each company’s website at Bristol-Myers Squibb https://www.bms.com/investors.html and Celgene https://ir.celgene.com/investors/default.aspx.

Presentation and Infographic

Associated presentation materials and an infographic regarding the transaction will be available on the investor relations section of each company’s website at Bristol-Myers Squibb https://www.bms.com/investors.html and Celgene https://ir.celgene.com/investors/default.aspx as well as a joint transaction website at www.bestofbiopharma.com.

2.  Then through news on Bloomberg and some other financial sites on a possible interest of a merged Celgene-Bristol Myers from Pfizer as well as other pharma groups

Here’s How John Paulson Is Positioning His Celgene/Bristol Trade

Billionaire John Paulson sees a 10 percent to 20 percent chance that Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. receives a takeover bid and he’s positioning his Celgene Corp. trade based on that risk, he said in an interview on Mike Samuels’ “According to Sources” podcast.

Bristol-Myers “is vulnerable and it has an attractive pipeline to several potential acquirers,” Paulson said in the podcast released Monday. “It’s a reasonable probability,” he said. “You have to be prepared someone may show up. It’s an attractive spread, but you can’t take that big a position.”

John Paulson

Photographer: Jin Lee/Bloomberg

Paulson has the Celgene/Bristol-Myers trade as a 3 percent portfolio position, though his firm is short a pharma index rather than Bristol-Myers for about half of the position. If an activist did show up, it would likely blow out the spread from its current $13.85 to probably $20 and, if an actual bid arrived, he said the spread could move out to $40.

“I just don’t feel comfortable being short Bristol in this environment,” Paulson said. “You can sort of get the same economics by shorting an index, maybe even do better because, since Bristol came down, if the pharma sector goes up, Bristol may go up more than the pharma sector, which would increase the profitability on the Celgene. ”

Celgene fell as much as 2.2 percent on Tuesday, its biggest intraday drop since Dec. 27. Bristol-Myers also sank as much as 2.2 percent, the most since Jan. 9.

The question of whether Bristol-Myers receives a hostile takeover offerhas been the top issue for investors since the Celgene deal was announced. The drugmaker was pressured in February 2017 to add three new directors after holding talks with activist hedge fund Jana Partners LLC. The same month, the Wall Street Journal reported that Carl Icahn had taken a stake and saw Bristol-Myers as a takeover target.

Pfizer Inc., AbbVie Inc. or Amgen Inc. “make varying amounts of sense as suitors, though we see many barriers to someone making an offer,” Credit Suisse analyst Vamil Divan wrote in a note earlier this month. AbbVie and Amgen “have the balance sheet strength and could look to beef up their oncology presence.”

CNBC’s David Faber said Jan. 3 — the day the Celgene deal was announced — that there had been “absolutely” no talks between Bristol-Myers and potential acquirers.

Jefferies analyst Michael Yee wrote in note Tuesday that he doesn’t expect an unsolicited offer for Bristol-Myers to “thwart” its Celgene purchase. He sees the deal spread as “quite attractive” again at the current range of 18 percent to 20 percent after it had earlier narrowed to 11 percent to 12 percent.

Paulson managed about $8.7 billion at the the beginning of November.

From StatNews.com at https://www.statnews.com/2019/01/22/celgene-legacy-chutzpah-science-drug-pricing/

 

Nina Kjellson was just two years out of college, working as a research associate at Oracle Partners, a hedge fund in New York, when a cabbie gave her a stock tip. There was a company in New Jersey, he told her, trying to resurrect thalidomide, a drug that was infamous for causing severe birth defects, as a treatment for cancer.

Kjellson was born in Finland, where the memory of thalidomide, which was given to mothers to treat morning sickness but led to babies born without arms or legs, was particularly raw because the drug hit Northern Europe hard. But she was on the hunt for new cancer drugs, and her interest was piqued. She ended up investing a small amount of her own money in Celgene. That was 1999.

Since then, Celgene shares have risen more than 100-fold; the company became one of the largest biotechnology firms in the world. Earlier this month, rival Bristol-Myers Squibb announced plans to purchase Celgene for $74 billion in cash and stock.

Reflecting on a company she watched for two decades, Kjellson, now a venture capitalist at Canaan Partners in San Francisco, marveled at the “grit and chutzpah” that it took to push thalidomide back onto the market. “The company started taking off,” she remembered, “but not without an incredible reversal.” Celgene faced resistance from some thalidomide victims, and the Food and Drug Administration was lobbied not to revive the drug. In the end, she said, it built a golden egg and became a favorite partner of smaller biotech companies like the ones she funds. And it populated the rest of the pharmaceutical industry with its alumni. “If I had a nickel for every company that says we want to do Celgene-like deals,” she said, “I’d have better returns than from my venture career.”

But there’s another side to Celgene. When the company launched thalidomide as a treatment for leprosy in 1998, it cost $6 a pill. As it became clear that it was also an effective cancer drug, Celgene slowly raised the price, quadrupling it by the time it received approval for an improved molecule, Revlimid. Then, it slowly increased the price of Revlimid by a total of 145 percent, according to Sector & Sovereign LLC, a pharmaceutical consultancy.

Revlimid now costs $693 a pill. In 2017, Revlimid and another thalidomide-derived cancer drug represented 76 percent of Celgene’s $12.9 billion in annual sales. Kjellson gives the company credit for guts in science, for taking a terrible drug and resurrecting it. But it also had chutzpah when it came to what it charged.

A pioneer in ‘modern pricing’

How did the price of thalidomide, and then Revlimid, increase so much? Celgene explained it in a 2004 front-page story in the Wall Street Journal. “When we launched it, it was going to be an AIDS-wasting drug,” Celgene’s chief executive at the time, John Jackson, said. “We couldn’t charge more or there would have been demonstrations outside the company.” But once Celgene realized that the drug was a cancer treatment, the company decided to slowly bring thalidomide’s price more in line with other cancer medicines, such as Velcade, a rival medicine now sold by the Japanese drug giant Takeda. In 2003, it cost more than twice as much as thalidomide. “By bringing [the price] up every year, it was heading toward where it should be as a cancer drug,” Jackson told the Journal.

Thalidomide was not actually approved as a myeloma treatment until 2006. That same year, Revlimid, which causes less sleepiness and nerve pain than thalidomide, was approved, and Barer, the chemist behind Celgene’s thalidomide strategy, took over as chief executive. He made good on thalidomide’s promise, churning out one blockbuster after another. In 2017 Revlimid generated $8.2 billion. Another cancer drug derived from thalidomide, Pomalyst, generated $1.6 billion. Otezla, a very different drug also based on thalidomide’s chemistry, treats psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis. Its 2017 sales: $1.3 billion.

With persistent price increases, quarter after quarter, Celgene pioneered something else: what Wall Street calls “modern pricing.” Cancer drug prices have risen inexorably.

 

Updated 2/28/2019

From FiercePharma.com

BMS’ largest investor condemns Celgene deal—and it’s music to activists’ ears

Activist investor Starboard Value is officially rallying the troops against Bristol-Myers Squibb’s $74 billion Celgene deal, and thanks to a big investor’s thumbs-down, it’ll have more support than some expected. But the question is whether it’ll be enough to scuttle the merger.

Starboard CEO Jeffrey Smith penned a letter (PDF) to Bristol-Myers’ shareholders on Thursday labeling the transaction “poorly conceived and ill-advised.” It intends to vote its shares—which number 1.63 million, though the hedge fund is seeking more—against the deal, and it wants to see other shareholders do the same. It’ll be filing proxy materials “in the coming days” to solicit “no” votes from BMS investors, Smith said.

Starboard picked up its stake early this year after the deal was announced, BMS confirmed last week, but until now, the activist fund hasn’t been forthcoming about its intentions. But the timing of its reveal is likely no coincidence; just Wednesday, Wellington Management—which owns about 8% of Bristol-Myers’ shares and ranked as its largest institutional shareholder as of earlier this week—came out publicly against the “risky” buyout.

But while “we believe it is possible at least one other long-term top-five [shareholder] may disagree with the transaction, too,” RBC Capital Markets’ Michael Yee wrote in his own investor note, he—as many of his fellow analysts do—still expects to see the deal go through. “We think the vast majority of the acquirer holder base that would not like the deal already voted by selling their shares earlier, leaving investors who are mostly supportive of the deal,” he wrote.

Meanwhile, Starboard has been clear about one other thing: It wants board seats. It’s nominated five new directors, including CEO Smith, and investors will vote on that group at an as-yet-unscheduled meeting. Thing is, that meeting will take place after BMS investors vote on the Celgene deal in April, so Starboard will have to rally sufficient support against the deal if it wants to see them installed.

The “probability of a third-party buyer for Bristol-Myers Squibb” before the April vote is “very low,” BMO Capital Markets analysts wrote recently, adding that “we do not believe a potential activist can change that.” Barclays analysts agreed Wednesday, pointing to a “lack of realistic, potential alternatives that could collectively provide a similar level of upside.”

Updated 4/12/2019

Bristol-Myers Squibb Shareholders Approve Celgene Tie-Up

Three quarters of Bristol-Myers Squibb shareholders vote to approve the deal with Celgene, paving the way for the largest pharmaceutical takeover in history.

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY – Get Report) on Friday announced that it had secured enough shareholder votes to approve its roughly $74 billion takeover of Celgene (CELG – Get Report) , putting the company closer to finalizing the largest pharmaceutical merger in history.

More than 75% of Bristol-Myers shareholders voted to approve the deal, according to a preliminary tally announced by Bristol-Myers on Friday.

Bristol-Myers’ position took a positive turn in late March after an influential shareholder advisory group recommended investors vote in favor of the cancer drug specialist’s takeover,  and a key activist dropped its opposition to the deal.

Institutional Shareholder Services recommended the deal, which had been challenged by key Bristol-Myers shareholders Starboard Value and Wellington Management, ahead of Friday’s vote.

Additional posts on Pharma Mergers and Deals on this Open Access Journal include:

Live Conference Coverage Medcity Converge 2018 Philadelphia: Clinical Trials and Mega Health Mergers

First Annual FierceBiotech Drug Development Forum (DDF). Event covers the drug development process from basic research through clinical trials. InterContinental Hotel, Boston, September 19-21, 2016.

Pfizer Near Allergan Buyout Deal But Will Fed Allow It?

New Values for Capital Investment in Technology Disruption: Life Sciences Group @Google and the Future of the Rest of the Biotech Industry

Mapping the Universe of Pharmaceutical Business Intelligence: The Model developed by LPBI and the Model of Best Practices LLC

 

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Changes in Levels of Sex Hormones and N-Terminal Pro–B-Type Natriuretic Peptide as Biomarker for Cardiovascular Diseases

Reporter and Curator: Dr. Sudipta Saha, Ph.D.

 

Considerable differences exist in the prevalence and manifestation of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) and heart failure (HF) between men and women. Premenopausal women have a lower risk of CVD and HF compared with men; however, this risk increases after menopause. Sex hormones, particularly androgens, are associated with CVD risk factors and events and have been postulated to mediate the observed sex differences in CVD.

 

B-type natriuretic peptides (BNPs) are secreted from cardiomyocytes in response to myocardial wall stress. BNP plays an important role in cardiovascular remodelling and volume homeostasis. It exerts numerous cardioprotective effects by promoting vasodilation, natriuresis, and ventricular relaxation and by antagonizing fibrosis and the effects of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system. Although the physiological role of BNP is cardioprotective, pathologically elevated N-terminal pro–BNP (NT-proBNP) levels are used clinically to indicate left ventricular hypertrophy, dysfunction, and myocardial ischemia. Higher NT-proBNP levels among individuals free of clinical CVD are associated with an increased risk of incident CVD, HF, and cardiovascular mortality.

 

BNP and NT-proBNP levels are higher in women than men in the general population. Several studies have proposed the use of sex- and age-specific reference ranges for BNP and NT-proBNP levels, in which reference limits are higher for women and older individuals. The etiology behind this sex difference has not been fully elucidated, but prior studies have demonstrated an association between sex hormones and NT-proBNP levels. Recent studies measuring endogenous sex hormones have suggested that androgens may play a larger role in BNP regulation by inhibiting its production.

 

Data were collected from a large, multiethnic community-based cohort of individuals free of CVD and HF at baseline to analyze both the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between sex hormones [total testosterone (T), bioavailable T, freeT, dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), SHBG, and estradiol] and NT-proBNP, separately for women and men. It was found that a more androgenic pattern of sex hormones was independently associated with lower NT-proBNP levels in cross-sectional analyses in men and postmenopausal women.

 

This association may help explain sex differences in the distribution of NT-proBNP and may contribute to the NP deficiency in men relative to women. In longitudinal analyses, a more androgenic pattern of sex hormones was associated with a greater increase in NT-proBNP levels in both sexes, with a more robust association among women. This relationship may reflect a mechanism for the increased risk of CVD and HF seen in women after menopause.

 

Additional research is needed to further explore whether longitudinal changes in NT-proBNP levels seen in our study are correlated with longitudinal changes in sex hormones. The impact of menopause on changes in NT-proBNP levels over time should also be explored. Furthermore, future studies should aim to determine whether sex hormones directly play a role in biological pathways of BNP synthesis and clearance in a causal fashion. Lastly, the dual role of NTproBNP as both

  • a cardioprotective hormone and
  • a biomarker of CVD and HF, as well as
  • the role of sex hormones in delineating these processes,

should be further explored. This would provide a step toward improved clinical CVD risk stratification and prognostication based on

  • sex hormone and
  • NT-proBNP levels.

 

References:

 

https://www.medpagetoday.com/clinical-connection/cardio-endo/76480?xid=NL_CardioEndoConnection_2018-12-27

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30137406

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22064958

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24036936

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19854731

 

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Role of Informatics in Precision Medicine: Notes from Boston Healthcare Webinar: Can It Drive the Next Cost Efficiencies in Oncology Care?

Reporter: Stephen J. Williams, Ph.D.

 

Boston Healthcare sponsored a Webinar recently entitled ” Role of Informatics in Precision Medicine: Implications for Innovators”.  The webinar focused on the different informatic needs along the Oncology Care value chain from drug discovery through clinicians, C-suite executives and payers. The presentation, by Joseph Ferrara and Mark Girardi, discussed the specific informatics needs and deficiencies experienced by all players in oncology care and how innovators in this space could create value. The final part of the webinar discussed artificial intelligence and the role in cancer informatics.

 

Below is the mp4 video and audio for this webinar.  Notes on each of the slides with a few representative slides are also given below:

Please click below for the mp4 of the webinar:

 

 


  • worldwide oncology related care to increase by 40% in 2020
  • big movement to participatory care: moving decision making to the patient. Need for information
  • cost components focused on clinical action
  • use informatics before clinical stage might add value to cost chain

 

 

 

 

Key unmet needs from perspectives of different players in oncology care where informatics may help in decision making

 

 

 

  1.   Needs of Clinicians

– informatic needs for clinical enrollment

– informatic needs for obtaining drug access/newer therapies

2.  Needs of C-suite/health system executives

– informatic needs to help focus of quality of care

– informatic needs to determine health outcomes/metrics

3.  Needs of Payers

– informatic needs to determine quality metrics and managing costs

– informatics needs to form guidelines

– informatics needs to determine if biomarkers are used consistently and properly

– population level data analytics

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What are the kind of value innovations that tech entrepreneurs need to create in this space? Two areas/problems need to be solved.

  • innovations in data depth and breadth
  • need to aggregate information to inform intervention

Different players in value chains have different data needs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data Depth: Cumulative Understanding of disease

Data Depth: Cumulative number of oncology transactions

  • technology innovators rely on LEGACY businesses (those that already have technology) and these LEGACY businesses either have data breath or data depth BUT NOT BOTH; (IS THIS WHERE THE GREATEST VALUE CAN BE INNOVATED?)
  • NEED to provide ACTIONABLE as well as PHENOTYPIC/GENOTYPIC DATA
  • data depth more important in clinical setting as it drives solutions and cost effective interventions.  For example Foundation Medicine, who supplies genotypic/phenotypic data for patient samples supplies high data depth
  • technologies are moving to data support
  • evidence will need to be tied to umbrella value propositions
  • Informatic solutions will have to prove outcome benefit

 

 

 

 

 

How will Machine Learning be involved in the healthcare value chain?

  • increased emphasis on real time datasets – CONSTANT UPDATES NEED TO OCCUR. THIS IS NOT HAPPENING BUT VALUED BY MANY PLAYERS IN THIS SPACE
  • Interoperability of DATABASES Important!  Many Players in this space don’t understand the complexities integrating these datasets

Other Articles on this topic of healthcare informatics, value based oncology, and healthcare IT on this OPEN ACCESS JOURNAL include:

Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services announced that the federal healthcare program will cover the costs of cancer gene tests that have been approved by the Food and Drug Administration

Broad Institute launches Merkin Institute for Transformative Technologies in Healthcare

HealthCare focused AI Startups from the 100 Companies Leading the Way in A.I. Globally

Paradoxical Findings in HealthCare Delivery and Outcomes: Economics in MEDICINE – Original Research by Anupam “Bapu” Jena, the Ruth L. Newhouse Associate Professor of Health Care Policy at HMS

Google & Digital Healthcare Technology

Can Blockchain Technology and Artificial Intelligence Cure What Ails Biomedical Research and Healthcare

The Future of Precision Cancer Medicine, Inaugural Symposium, MIT Center for Precision Cancer Medicine, December 13, 2018, 8AM-6PM, 50 Memorial Drive, Cambridge, MA

Live Conference Coverage @Medcity Converge 2018 Philadelphia: Oncology Value Based Care and Patient Management

2016 BioIT World: Track 5 – April 5 – 7, 2016 Bioinformatics Computational Resources and Tools to Turn Big Data into Smart Data

The Need for an Informatics Solution in Translational Medicine

 

 

 

 

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