McKinsey experts on COVID-19: Implications for business
Reporter on Executive Briefing Highlights: Joel T. Shertok, PhD
JTS – 11/17/20
- COVID-19-vaccine trial: a leading candidate has an efficacy rate of about 90 percent.
- The gap between incoming and outgoing Treasury funds may reach $30 trillion soon.
- Our latest research shows a particularly effective bridge for governments to consider: real estate.
- Many businesses will embrace sustainability; voluntary carbon markets can help them reach their goals.
- China, the world’s growth engine for the past 25 years, has come back
- Consumer behavior has changed, pockets of growth are shifting, and leadership and management practices are in flux
- Likely Pandemic scenarios:
- A muted recovery
- A prolonged and insufficient recovery
- As the unrelenting COVID-19 pandemic rolls on, the future isn’t what it used to be: what used to be a simple idea now comes freighted with caveats, assumptions, and speculations.
- The auto industry is one of the world’s largest and has been devastated by the pandemic: sales may drop by 20 to 30 percent in 2020, and we estimate that profits will fall by $100 billion.
- The US restaurant industry has given many iconic brands to the rest of the world. But today, the sector is in trouble.
- People don’t order sides, appetizers, and desserts as frequently when they’re ordering for delivery—but as leaders know, those items are often the difference between profit and loss.
- For banks, the pandemic has changed everything. Risk-management teams are running hard to catch up with cascades of credit risk, among other challenges.
- Ethnic minority groups have made progress. But the COVID-19 crisis threatens that progress;
- All ethnic-minority groups have higher age-adjusted COVID-19-related death rates than white people do.
- In the middle of the deepest recession in memory, stock markets are reaching new highs. Why the disconnect?
- Many investors still take a long-term perspective; they are looking ahead to the end of the pandemic.
- Another factor: five big-tech companies now make up 21 percent of the S&P 500,
- The overall stock market can do relatively well even when employment and GDP are severely depressed.
- Companies can expect a disruption to their production lines of one to two months—a very long time.
- The effects of the COVID-19 crisis have exacerbated gender disparities and their implications for women at work, especially for mothers, female senior leaders, and Black women across America.
- The exodus might include as many as two million women. That would raise a significant barrier to achieving gender parity in leadership roles in years to come.
- The global economic contractions resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic have far exceeded those of the Great Recession that ended in 2009 and have occurred at a much faster rate, hitting all sectors and many of the world’s largest employers.
- Two important issues facing healthcare providers. First, similarities in flu and COVID-19 symptoms could lead to a threefold spike in demand for COVID-19 testing as flu season in the Northern Hemisphere approaches.
- Second, the crisis has also led to a surgical backlog for elective procedures because of lack of hospital capacity, workforce shortages, and new safety protocols.
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