Economic Impact of The Coronavirus Pandemic Dr. Joel Shertok, PhD Lead Curator – e–mail Contact: jshertok@processindconsultants.com | Leaders in Pharmaceutical Business Intelligence (LPBI) Group

Economic Impact of The Coronavirus Pandemic Dr. Joel Shertok, PhD Lead Curator – e–mail Contact: jshertok@processindconsultants.com

Economic Impact of The Coronavirus Pandemic

Lead Curator – e–mail Contact: jshertok@processindconsultants.com

11/18/2020

McKinsey experts on COVID-19: Implications for business: Executive Briefing

Reporter on Executive Briefing Highlights: Joel T. Shertok, PhD

https://pharmaceuticalintelligence.com/2020/11/18/mckinsey-experts-on-covid-19-implications-for-business-executive-briefing/

7/5/2020

The Global Economic Outlook During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Changed World

Reporter: Joel Shertok, PhD

By the World Bank — June 8, 2020

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2020/06/08/the-global-economic-outlook-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-a-changed-world

7/3/2020

Why We Can’t Foresee the Pandemic’s Long-Term Effects

Reported by Joel Shertok, PhD,

From the New York Times, May 31, 2020

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/29/business/coronavirus-economic-forecast-shiller.html

By Robert J. Shiller

https://pharmaceuticalintelligence.com/2020/07/03/why-we-cant-foresee-the-pandemics-long-term-effects/

7/3/2020

Exacerbation of Food Insecurity in Africa due to COVID-19

Author: Jared Lefkort

June 29, 2020

Food security in Africa is an ongoing issue, only worsened by the continued spread of COVID-19. In his brief lecture during the June 2020 ABiQ Webinar, Dr. Ikechi Agbugba outlines factors that lead to food insecurity, important pillars to the achievement of food security, barriers to such achievement, and finally some solutions. Most importantly, however, is how the novel Coronavirus is only exacerbating the issues of food insecurity across the African continent. Dr. Ikechi defines food security as the point in which “all people at all times have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that will meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy lifestyle.”

Before diving deeper into the independent issue of food security, it is important to understand how the spread of COVID-19 across the globe has interrupted supply chains of numerous industries. While many industries utilize a central factory for manufacturing activities, the supplies and products used for the manufacturing of goods are derived from many countries. When COVID-19 infections ramp up in one part of the world, the resources from that region will become less available, thus interrupting supply chains reliant on deliveries from a region experiencing high infection rates. While this has always been a well known theoretical consequence, the experience of these supply chain interruptions has the potential to change global manufacturing practices.

In terms of food security, the interruption of supply chains has the potential to create food shortages affecting millions of people in the wake of COVID-19, and could radically exacerbate the already existing issues surrounding food insecurity in Africa. This is likely to start with an increase in consumption of home-grown food, and the laying off of farm staff. With the lockdown follows an increase in prices of food and other agro commodities as well as an increased demand. Food security is highly dependent not only on supply chains, but security, sovereignty, and safety. These three factors are underscored by availability, access, utilization, and stability. To simplify, food insecurity in Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic will only be worsened. With interruptions in supply chains and the continued spread of infections, issues of access and availability to food become heightened. In the longer term, political and economic stability are threatened, leading to an unsure future.

An issue highlighted by the pandemic is diseconomies of scale. Dr. Ikechi describes that “the concept of economies of scale means that the average cost (AVC) per unit of production decreases as the size of the farm increases.” As there are a large number of smallholder farms, representing up to 80% in the region, diseconomies of scale become an important factor to consider and this concept will lead to a continuing increase in prices.

Dr. Ikechi identifies five priority areas to focus on to decrease the effect of the pandemic on food insecurity. These include:

increasing sustainable production while growing the labor force
Diversification of high quality processed products
Promotion of efficient and equitable value chain development
Implement plans for farms and agricultural systems to be more resilient to changes in environment
Development of regional markets and controlling international integration

In addition, Dr. Ikechi noted that the food processing industry holds a great potential for growth. However, several barriers to this growth exist. These include: high costs of inputs, a lack of adequate processing and storage facilities, high prices due to inflation, poor infrastructure, inadequate water supplies, and many other factors. Additional challenges exist within African Governments. Many of these governments may struggle to implement financial intervention and benefit packages introduced by more developed countries. Some realistic solutions presented include the opening up of borders to trade food, encouraging DFI support and stimulation of development and investment agriculture, and the introduction of new Agritech businesses. To conclude, the widespread infections of COVID-19 have led to a chain reaction, interrupting supply chains and daily routines, continuing to exacerbate ongoing issues of food insecurity across the African continent.

References

Agbugba, Ikechi K. “Food Security in Africa During and After COVID-19 Pandemic.” ABiQ Webinar. Lecture, June 24, 2020.

https://www.abiq.io/food-security-in-africa-during-and-after-the-covid-19-pandemic/

SOURCE

From: Jared Lefkort <jared.haifub@gmail.com>

Date: Tuesday, June 30, 2020 at 11:04 AM

To: “Dr. Joel Shertok, PhD” <jshertok@processindconsultants.com>, Aviva Lev-Ari <AvivaLev-Ari@alum.berkeley.edu>, Gail Thornton <gailsthornton@yahoo.com>

Cc: Ofer Markman <oferm2020@gmail.com>

Subject: Post for LPBI – Jared Lefkort

6/29/2020

Why Some Doctors Are Losing Pay Over COVID-19

Report: Irina Robu, PhD

American Hospitals are temporarily pausing elective surgeries and skipping urgent care to save space and keep access to equpiment needed for COVID-19 space, as a result letting some healthcare workers go.

Facilities with poor financial shape before the virus, see a massive strain financing treament for COVID-19 patients. They are unable to get enough protective personal equipment and ventilators.

Predictions and recommendations around COVID-19 are changing on an hourly basis. And so are the state of the economy for these hospitals!

https://www.healthecareers.com/medpage/article/healthcare-news/why-some-doctors-are-losing-pay-over-covid-19?utm_source=medpagetoday

6/19/2020

Prof. Scott Galloway talks to Anderson Cooper | How the pandemic could disrupt higher education

83,394 views

•Premiered May 22, 2020

6/10/2020

The Complexity of Estimation of the Economic Impact of an Outbreak | Panel Discussion | BC Woods College

Reporter: Ofer Markman, PhD

Economic Impact of an Outbreak | Panel Discussion | BC Woods College

197 views

•May 21, 2020

Boston College

WATCH VIDEO

5/16/2020

The COVID-19 Recovery will be digital: A plan for the First 90 Days

Report: Joel T. Shertok, PhD

https://pharmaceuticalintelligence.com/2020/05/16/bullet-item-summary-the-covid-19-recovery-will-be-digital-a-plan-for-the-first-90-days/

5/2/2020

Mass. High Technology Council COVID-19 Recovery and Return to Work Series: Framework for Restarting the MA Economy

The Massachusetts High Technology Council’s Executive Committee along with a diverse group of private sector leaders have developed a Recovery and Return to Work framework designed to restart the Commonwealth’s economy while protecting the health of residents. The framework’s essential categories are presented by Steve Pagliuca, Co-Chairman, Bain Capital and co-owner of the Boston Celtics, and Megan Greenfield, Partner, McKinsey & Co.

<p><a href=”https://vimeo.com/414000566″>Mass. High Technology Council COVID-19 Recovery and Return to Work Series: Framework for Restarting the MA Economy</a> from <a href=”https://vimeo.com/user38060768″>Mass. High Tech Council.</a> on <a href=”https://vimeo.com”>Vimeo</a>.</p>

SOURCE

https://vimeo.com/414000566

4/17/2020

The Impact Of The Coronavirus Crisis On Mergers And Acquisitions

Reporter – Dr. Joel T. Shertok

https://pharmaceuticalintelligence.com/2020/04/17/the-impact-of-the-coronavirus-crisis-on-mergers-and-acquisitions/

4/14/2020

BERKELEY CONVERSATIONS > COVID-19

COVID-19: Economic impact, human solutions

By Edward Lempinen| APRIL 10, 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic is confronting every level of the U.S. economy with an unprecedented challenge, and the government must mount a sustained, ambitious economic response lasting months and perhaps years, UC Berkeley economists said in an online forum today.

In the latest event in the Berkeley Conversations: COVID-19 series, some of the nation’s leading economists and policy experts said the effort will require expansive additional measures to relieve workers, state governments and businesses. And they agreed that the recovery program must focus on workers and communities of color who are bearing the brunt of the crisis.

The recovery program likely will cost trillions of dollars, on top of relief measures already approved by Congress and President Donald Trump. But, they said, aggressive investment and well-designed policy could bring the economy back more quickly and with less long-term distress for workers and businesses. They concluded that the nation can afford the investment.

“We’re definitely headed to something much deeper than the Great Recession, and comparable to Great Depression in depth,” said Jesse Rothstein, director of Berkeley’s Institute for Research on Labor and Employment (IRLE). “What we don’t know yet is whether we’ll be able to bounce back quickly or whether it will linger on for a decade or more. … The greater extent that we can keep workers attached to their firms and keep the firms afloat, the more likely it is it will bounce back quickly.”

“What’s going to be essential is the government response — the scale, the rapidity of the response,” said Berkeley economist Gabriel Zucman, whose work on wealth distribution and tax policy has attracted international attention.

Berkeley Conversations: COVID-19 is an online discussion series organized by UC Berkeley that convenes world-class scholars to discuss a range of issues critical to the pandemic and recovery. Friday’s event was sponsored by the Goldman School of Public Policy and Berkeley’s Opportunity Lab. It was recorded and archived for public viewing at no cost.

The virulent novel coronavirus emerged in China in November 2019, and in just a few months has advanced across the planet. Over 100,000 people have died, and millions have fallen seriously ill. To check the spread of the virus, people around the world have isolated in their homes and business has shut down. There is no precedent in U.S. history for such a sudden economic shock.

Data discussed at the forum underscored the extent of COVID-19’s impact: As much as a third of the U.S. economy may be shut down. Real unemployment may be at 25%, and millions are filing for unemployment relief every week. Among members of Unite Here, a union representing 307,000 hotel and restaurant workers nationwide, 98% are out of work. California may lose $20 billion to $50 billion in tax revenues, and this will come from its $200 billion annual budget.

Washington has answered with a $2 trillion relief package, and the Federal Reserve Board this week announced $2.3 trillion of additional virus relief for small businesses and local governments.

Still, the experts said, more will be needed to offset the damage. Economist Hilary Hoynes, co-director of the Opportunity Lab, cited three immediate priorities: expanded support under the food stamp program, increased support for renters and increased aid to state governments.
But political scientist Henry Brady, dean of the Goldman School of Public Policy, put things in perspective: The U.S. has a $22 trillion economy, and it had been in good health before the pandemic hit.

This suggests that the nation has the capacity to invest in recovery, the experts said. But carefully targeted policy will be essential. A priority will be to assure that policy addresses the critical needs of low-income people and communities of color, who have been disproportionately hurt by the pandemic.

“Based on the fragmentary data that we have coming out of New York City, black and Latino Americans are dying at twice the rate … of white Americans,” said Ellora Derenoncourt, who will start in the fall as a Berkeley assistant professor of economics and public policy. “Most Americans can’t work from home. That’s even more true of black and Latino workers. And so they are really bearing the brunt of this crisis.”

Some lawmakers have suggested that the United States must move as quickly as possible to return to normalcy and restart the economy. But the Berkeley experts suggested pitting public health against the economy is a false choice. Rather, they said, the two are inseparable: Assuring public health is the first step toward a sustainable recovery.

“This is a moment when we realize that we’re all in this together,” Brady said. “When we do good things for people, like providing children with food stamps, they turn out to have better lives as they go forward. … We have to think about how, by investing in people, we actually make the society better.”

SOURCE

https://news.berkeley.edu/2020/04/10/covid-19-economic-impact-human-solutions/

4/13/2020

When Will Life Be Normal Again? We Just Don’t Know

Reporter: Joel T. Shertok, PhD

https://pharmaceuticalintelligence.com/2020/04/13/when-will-life-be-normal-again-we-just-dont-know/

3/24/2020

John H. Cochrane on COVID-19 and the Economy | Hoover Virtual Policy Briefing

Mar 24, 2020

https://youtu.be/q55Kb30adwo

HooverInstitution

Recorded March 23, 2020, 11AM PST Hoover Senior Fellow John H. Cochrane provides a briefing on the COVID-19 pandemic and how it is affecting the US economy. The Hoover Institution presents an online virtual briefing series on pressing policy issues, including health care, the economy, democratic governance, and national security. Briefings will include thoughtful and informed analysis from our top scholars ABOUT THE FELLOW John H. Cochrane is the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, was a junior staff economist on the Council of Economic Advisers (1982–83), and maintains the Grumpy Economist blog. To receive notifications about upcoming briefings, please sign up by clicking here: http://eepurl.com/gXjSSb.

3/23/2020

How is the 3D Printing Community Responding to COVID-19?

Reporter: Irina Robu, PhD

https://pharmaceuticalintelligence.com/2020/03/23/how-is-the-3d-printing-community-responding-to-covid-19/

3/19/2020

Will the Coronavirus Permanently Change Our Way of Working?

Reporter: Joel Shertok, PhD

https://pharmaceuticalintelligence.com/2020/03/19/will-the-corona-virus-permanently-change-our-way-of-working/

3/7/2020

VCs warn coronavirus will impact fundraising for the next 2 quartersSarah Buhr @sarahbuhr / 12:22 pm EST • March 7, 2020 https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/07/vcs-warn-coronavirus-will-impact-fundraising-for-the-next-2-quarters/

Silicon Valley Leadership group surveys members on coronavirus – Silicon Valley Business Journal https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2020/03/13/coronavirus-survey-heres-how-many-silicon-valley.html?ana=e_me_set2

After the Virus: Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said he doesn’t think the country has entered a recession.

Good luck finding an economist who agrees with him on that one.

In an ABC News interview on Sunday, Mnuchin conceded a “slowdown” is inevitable. However, he also boasted about economic activity picking up later in the year. Of course, the secretary has a vested interest in painting the rosiest picture possible: His boss is up for reelection.

Let’s be realistic here. Many economists are saying we most likely entered a recession this month, as coronavirus-related shutdowns grind various industries to a halt. Some predict US gross domestic product will slide 5 percent, on an annualized basis, in the April-June quarter. And they’re the optimistic ones.

Our economic problems are shifting and deepening at a seemingly unprecedented pace.

Consider the challenges facing the MassBenchmarks editorial board. The panel of local experts met on Friday, in a regularly scheduled quarterly meeting to discuss the state of the local economy. It was the first time they had met by teleconference, not in person. But here’s something even more unusual: Today, they were already passing around revisions to their upcoming report by email, because of how quickly circumstances changed over the weekend.

Today, the conditions seemed even more serious. Governor Charlie Baker effectively shut down the restaurant industry, aside from allowing takeout and delivery orders, and banned gatherings with more than 25 people; Massachusetts became just of one of many places across the country imposing similar restrictions within the past few days.

Baker’s decision happened on Sunday. As did the Federal Reserve’s emergency action to reduce the federal funds rate to as close to zero as possible, and to embark on a massive shopping spree of government bonds. The Fed’s action did little to reassure investors: The stock market had one of its worst days in history today.

Even President Trump had to change his tune a bit, admitting this afternoon that the country “may be” heading into a recession.

Talk to members of the MassBenchmarks board, and several would say we’re already there. The shutdowns have been swift and staggering. Everything from conventions to Celtics games has been taken off the calendar. Add the construction industry in Boston to that list: Mayor Marty Walsh closed it down today as a safety precaution; one more engine of the Massachusetts economy sputters to a stop. Small businesses that rely on the everyday flow of commerce are getting hammered in this new Work From Home World.

The board members didn’t want to go into detail about their collective projection for Massachusetts, ahead of an internal approval of the board’s report expected on Tuesday. The deliberations were challenging, to say the least. Normally, they look to the state’s economic performance in previous months — sales tax revenue, employment stats, and the like — to predict the future. Those tools were nearly useless this time. There are two economies now: Before the Virus and After the Virus.

They don’t expect the fate of the state’s economy to differ much from the nation’s. And for that outlook, we have plenty of guesstimates to review. For example, Joel Prakken, chief US economist at business information provider IHS Markit, said his firm sees a 5.4 percent contraction in GDP in the second quarter. Assuming consumer spending recovers in the summer, IHS Markit still sees a 1.9 percent contraction over the second half of the year. Meanwhile, JPMorgan Funds chief global strategist David Kelly said 5 percent is on the low side for Q2. The upper end? The economy could contract by 10 percent in the April-June quarter.

The pace of recovery will depend on two crucial variables: the duration of this pandemic, and the effectiveness of the stimulus measures crafted by state and federal governments to blunt its many impacts.

Economists typically look to the National Bureau of Economic Research, a Cambridge-based nonprofit organization, to be the final arbiter of whether we’re in a recession, defined by the group as a broad contraction in the economy. A recession is sometimes defined as two consecutive quarters of declines in the nation’s GDP. But the NBER uses monthly data as well as quarterly GDP figures; it usually takes many months before that call is made.

Many of those same economists would agree: We don’t need to wait for that official call to know we’re in the thick of it already.

Jon Chesto is a Globe reporter. Reach him at jon.chesto@globe.com and follow him on Twitter @jonchesto.

SOURCE

From: Talking Points PM <newsletters@bostonglobe.com>

Reply-To: Talking Points PM <newsletters@bostonglobe.com>

Date: Monday, March 16, 2020 at 7:19 PM

To: Aviva Lev-Ari <AvivaLev-Ari@alum.berkeley.edu>

Subject: Economists say recession has already begun. Construction halted in Boston. MBTA pares back its train schedules.

Leaders in Pharmaceutical Business Intelligence (LPBI) Group

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